Sunday, November 4, 2012

Here are my predictions

For the record:

(1) Obama wins with 300+ electoral votes.  He wins Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.  Maybe North Carolina.  This despite some pretty astounding vote suppression shenanigans on election day.

(2) Democrats increase their numbers in the Senate by 1 or 2 seats.  They win Indiana.  We get the first lesbian senator in Wisconsin.  Akin goes down the crapper.

(3) Democrats increase their numbers in the House but fall just short of a majority. Michele Bachmann is defeated.  Steve King in Iowa is defeated.  Tea Party kooks get clobbered.

(4) Marriage equality wins in Washington state (big margin), Maine (big margin), and Maryland (narrow margin). The anti-gay constitutional amendment in Minnesota just barely fails by a few hundred votes.  Democrats keep control of the Iowa state senate and thus prevent Republicans from pushing an anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment through the legislature.  Iowa Supreme Court Justice Wiggins is retained.  2012 becomes the watershed year in the struggle for gay equality.  From here on the anti-gay forces get chewed up and spat out.  They're finished as a political force.

(5) The Republican Party ceases to exist as a national party and becomes a collection of regional factions with irreconcilable differences.  The 44-year-old Southern Strategy of Richard Nixon--wedge issue race-baiting and inflaming the racial hatred of angry white males--dies an ignoble death.  Leaderless, agenda-less Republicans descend into intra-party civil war.

You read it here first.  Cross your fingers.

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