The bottom drops out

More new developments on the gay marriage front:

(1) Former secretary of state Colin Powell has announced his support for gay marriage.

(2) ABC News/Washington Post polling reports that for the first time those strongly supporting gay marriage outnumber those strongly opposing.

(3) Langer Research Associates reports that since Barack Obama's announcement of support for gay marriage, African Americans now support gay marriage by 59%, up from 40% as recently as a year ago.

(4) ABC/Post poll reports that now an absolute majority of 51-53% support gay marriage.

(5) Public Policy Polling reports that now 57% of Maryland voters will vote to uphold the state's new gay marriage law. There has been an enormous shift in black support from 57% opposed to 56% in favor.

I'd say that the bottom of the anti-gay marriage hate ship has just fallen out and that the ship is now sinking. The haters had previously counted on an apparently immovable opposition to gay marriage among black voters. Then Barack Obama changed everything. Now prominent black leaders like Powell and the NAACP have announced support for gay marriage equality. The black vote no longer belongs to the haters. If trends continue (and there's no reason to think they won't) support for the anti-gay haters will hardly amount to a quarter of the population. Talk about reversal of fortune. That's about where gay marriage support started back in the late 1990s, the difference being that support for justice, fairness, and equality has grown whereas support for bigotry has declined. It's fair to say that the anti-gay marriage campaign is dying on the vine in front of our eyes.

November is now not only a watershed moment in the gay marriage struggle. It may be a knockout victory. If the votes in Washington state, Maine, Maryland, and Minnesota turn out to be landslides in favor of equality for gays, it's over. The Supreme Court will have a political basis to invalidate all anti-gay marriage obstructions when the Proposition 8 case arrives on its docket sometime after the election. There is already constitutional basis in Roemer vs Evans, but the uncourageous court never outpaces public opinion on anything.

Put a bit differently, if a political candidate was polling the way gay marriage is now polling, all observers and pundits would say that he was own his way to victory. Mitt Romney is going to pay a big price for his stupid support for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. He'd better drop that crap right now if he knows what's good for him although I hope he doesn't because there will be nothing sweeter in November than the sight of the Mormon church and its favorite son/champion being crushed by a pro-gay avalanche.