As the Great Depression of the 21st century continues, something I've written about is now being generally recognized: the Social Security system is broke.
The financing scheme behind Social Security is called "pay as you go," which means whatever money you pay out this year you also raise this year in payroll taxes. One dollar raised is one dollar paid out. However, for at least the last generation, the government has collected annual surpluses because it jiggered the payroll tax rate. The government immediately applied these surpluses to its annual budget and gave Social Security IOUs in return. Thus, Social Security was converted into a surreptitious income tax that partially disguised the size of annual federal budget cash deficit. Then came the 2008 Great Depression; unemployment reduced payroll tax revenues and claims on Social Security increased. All of a sudden not only is there no longer any surplus; the system can't even pay as it goes because Social Security revenue is less than expenditure. The system is in trouble. Time to call in those IOUs. But wait! Who pays these IOUs? Answer: the government. Question: how? Answer: with borrowed money that increases the federal budget deficit. Question: how long will this go on? Answer: it must go on indefinitely because as far as anyone can tell Social Security revenues will never again be sufficient to cover expenditures.
That's the Ponzi-scheme scam that has now blown up. Social Security payroll taxes don't raise as much money as Social Security pays out, so Social Security is being supported by funds from the general budget. As 41% of the federal budget is borrowed money (previously borrowed from the Chinese and Japanese and now just printed dollars issued by the federal reserve), Social Security is now living on borrowed money. And borrowed time.
What's likely to happen? Two things: big cuts in benefits and higher taxes. Grandma must live on less while grandson sees his take-home pay shrink. That's the inescapable future of Social Security. But who in Congress will vote for such a thing? Nobody. So some sneaky, under-handed scam will be invented. Like indefinitely postponing cost of living increases even as the cost of living sky rockets. Like removing the annual limit on the payroll tax and in effect converting it into a second income tax. Or like imposing new tax rate hikes disguised as "temporary" surcharges or adjustments. The possible deceptions are innumerable. Whatever happens, we will hearing an endless barrage of political talk about the absolutely sound foundation of Social Security even as it falls apart before our eyes.
The simple, unavoidable fact about Social Security is this: the future demands on the system will far exceed the ability of the system to pay. As the Baby Boom generation ages, the need for income support will overwhelm the ability to provide it; this failure will undermine public support for Social Security, which may be the only part of government most people care anything about nowadays.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Monday, September 27, 2010
Death of the knucklehead
Have you ever seen one of the two-wheeled "scooters" on which you stand and zip down the sidewalk? I was nearly run down by one the other day. Some people, too lazy to walk, are willing to pony up a big wad of cash for one of these moronic devices. We pedestrians have to run for our lives when one of these Segway scooter loonies comes whizzing down the sidewalk at us. Why do these stupid devices exist? They're not for people who genuinely have trouble walking. You have to stand on these things; people with leg trouble need to sit. These devices are for lazy middle-class lumps with too much money to spend.
Well, there's news to report from lazy lump land. The owner of the Segway company has died in an accident. How? You guessed it. He was riding on one of his scooters and he ran off a cliff and he went splat. How's that for the karma of modern technology? Talk about diminishing returns! Evidently he was "inspecting" his estate in Yorkshire and zigged when he should have zagged. My guess is that this late middle-aged child was hot dogging around his grounds with one too many beers in his belly, and he lost control of his toy and crashed. An all-too familiar story among adolescents--including the arrested kind.
One nuisance down, how many to go?
Read it here
Well, there's news to report from lazy lump land. The owner of the Segway company has died in an accident. How? You guessed it. He was riding on one of his scooters and he ran off a cliff and he went splat. How's that for the karma of modern technology? Talk about diminishing returns! Evidently he was "inspecting" his estate in Yorkshire and zigged when he should have zagged. My guess is that this late middle-aged child was hot dogging around his grounds with one too many beers in his belly, and he lost control of his toy and crashed. An all-too familiar story among adolescents--including the arrested kind.
One nuisance down, how many to go?
Read it here
Monday, August 16, 2010
America's gift to human civilization
Uranium is found naturally in three isotopes, U238, U235, U234. U238 comprises about 99.2%, U235 about .7%, and U234 the rest. Bombs and cores for nuclear reactors are made from U235. When U235 is removed from a quantity of uranium ore, the remainder is called "depleted uranium." U238 has a radioactive half-life of around 4.5 billion years, meaning that if you have a pound of U238 now then in 4.5 billion years you'll still have half a pound of it left.
The American military discovered a use for this radioactive material: they make artillery shells, tank shells, and bullets from it. Because U238 is so dense, it penetrates armor; shells made from U238 are very useful on the battlefield. Of course, these shells disintegrate and burn when used, and the radioactive uranium is thus dispersed across the battlefield. These battlefields become contaminated with uranium and remain contaminated forever. As long as the earth exists these places will be contaminated by radiation. "Clean up" is totally unfeasible. The uranium particles mix with dust, dirt, soil, etc. They are incorporated into the bodies of living beings, animals and plants and humans. They end up in water tables and wells. They wash into streams and rivers. Once deposited, the uranium remains forever.
The United States used these weapons in its war against the people of Iraq, the ancient land of Mesopotamia where human civilization was born. The United States has now contaminated the cradle of civilization for all time to come. The results are appalling. The link below takes you to a documentary about the horrifying rise in birth defects the people of Iraq are now suffering. While you watch it, remember: this is only the beginning of suffering that will never end. The ancient land between the rivers, the home of Sumer and Akkad, the place where humans first learned to write, the land of Hammurabi and his laws--the cradle of human civilization is now contaminated for all time to come by radioactive uranium deposited there by American soldiers waging war on the people of Iraq. In the land of ancient Sumer, in the land of Ur of the Chaldees from which Abraham journeyed west to Palestine, America's legacy to the human race is endless misery, sickness, deformities, and death beyond any human power to ameliorate.
View the documentary here
The American military discovered a use for this radioactive material: they make artillery shells, tank shells, and bullets from it. Because U238 is so dense, it penetrates armor; shells made from U238 are very useful on the battlefield. Of course, these shells disintegrate and burn when used, and the radioactive uranium is thus dispersed across the battlefield. These battlefields become contaminated with uranium and remain contaminated forever. As long as the earth exists these places will be contaminated by radiation. "Clean up" is totally unfeasible. The uranium particles mix with dust, dirt, soil, etc. They are incorporated into the bodies of living beings, animals and plants and humans. They end up in water tables and wells. They wash into streams and rivers. Once deposited, the uranium remains forever.
The United States used these weapons in its war against the people of Iraq, the ancient land of Mesopotamia where human civilization was born. The United States has now contaminated the cradle of civilization for all time to come. The results are appalling. The link below takes you to a documentary about the horrifying rise in birth defects the people of Iraq are now suffering. While you watch it, remember: this is only the beginning of suffering that will never end. The ancient land between the rivers, the home of Sumer and Akkad, the place where humans first learned to write, the land of Hammurabi and his laws--the cradle of human civilization is now contaminated for all time to come by radioactive uranium deposited there by American soldiers waging war on the people of Iraq. In the land of ancient Sumer, in the land of Ur of the Chaldees from which Abraham journeyed west to Palestine, America's legacy to the human race is endless misery, sickness, deformities, and death beyond any human power to ameliorate.
View the documentary here
Thursday, August 12, 2010
More hooray!
Judge Vaughn Walker ordered California to resume granting gay people marriage licenses on August 18. The judge allowed the pro-Proposition 8 losing side a week to file an appeal with the 9th circuit court of appeals to prevent this from happening. There is much cheering on the gay side of the case, and it sure looks like gay marriage is back in business in California.
That said, there is a very important part of the judge's ruling that has not received proper attention. The judge has very clearly stated a legal reason why there may never be an appeal of his ruling: the pro-Proposition 8 side lacks standing to appeal. The state of California is not appealing this ruling; both the Governor and the Attorney General have sided with immediate resumption of gay marriage. So the state has no part of the appeal. That leaves only private citizens to mount an appeal that is trying to defend an amendment to the state's constitution. The judge points out that the case law clearly does not give private citizens the standing necessary to appeal a case regarding the state's constitution or the result of a referendum if the state itself has no interest in making such an appeal.
The private citizens qualified for a trial in district court because the plaintiffs sued the governor and the attorney general; the judge allowed the private citizens to argue the case when both the governor and the attorney general declined to do so. But the appeals process is different. The federal constitution requires states, not private citizens, to make these kinds of appeals. The bottom line: the private pro-Proposition 8 groups are not substitutes for the state at the appeal level. They don't have standing in an appeals court. They're at the end of the legal road.
I'm sure that the anti-Proposition 8 legal team is at this moment compiling all the relevant case law and court decisions regarding standing and will clobber the pro-side whenever they meet in the appeals court. If the court rules that the pro-Proposition 8 side has no standing, this would be tremendous news because the case would no longer have any basis, Judge Walker's decision would stand, and gay marriage would be unassailable in California. Of course, even if the ninth circuit court so rules, the Supreme Court would hear an appeal about this appeal. But the case law is very clear: states, not private citizens acting on their own, alone have standing to take these kinds of cases into the appellate courts. There's good reason to think that the pro-Proposition 8 dimwit legal team has really screwed up their case--first, by not offering even a rational defense in the trial court; second, by gambling on an appellate process from which they may be excluded altogether.
That said, there is a very important part of the judge's ruling that has not received proper attention. The judge has very clearly stated a legal reason why there may never be an appeal of his ruling: the pro-Proposition 8 side lacks standing to appeal. The state of California is not appealing this ruling; both the Governor and the Attorney General have sided with immediate resumption of gay marriage. So the state has no part of the appeal. That leaves only private citizens to mount an appeal that is trying to defend an amendment to the state's constitution. The judge points out that the case law clearly does not give private citizens the standing necessary to appeal a case regarding the state's constitution or the result of a referendum if the state itself has no interest in making such an appeal.
The private citizens qualified for a trial in district court because the plaintiffs sued the governor and the attorney general; the judge allowed the private citizens to argue the case when both the governor and the attorney general declined to do so. But the appeals process is different. The federal constitution requires states, not private citizens, to make these kinds of appeals. The bottom line: the private pro-Proposition 8 groups are not substitutes for the state at the appeal level. They don't have standing in an appeals court. They're at the end of the legal road.
I'm sure that the anti-Proposition 8 legal team is at this moment compiling all the relevant case law and court decisions regarding standing and will clobber the pro-side whenever they meet in the appeals court. If the court rules that the pro-Proposition 8 side has no standing, this would be tremendous news because the case would no longer have any basis, Judge Walker's decision would stand, and gay marriage would be unassailable in California. Of course, even if the ninth circuit court so rules, the Supreme Court would hear an appeal about this appeal. But the case law is very clear: states, not private citizens acting on their own, alone have standing to take these kinds of cases into the appellate courts. There's good reason to think that the pro-Proposition 8 dimwit legal team has really screwed up their case--first, by not offering even a rational defense in the trial court; second, by gambling on an appellate process from which they may be excluded altogether.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Hooray!
A federal judge appointed to the bench by Ronald Reagan has overturned mob rule in California and re-imposed the rule of law.
Proposition 8, the infamous mob-rule attempt to alienate gay people from the fundamental human right of marriage, is now overturned. The judge spared no words in his ruling: Proposition 8 has no rational basis ("the Bible says" is not a rational, legal argument in these United States, especially when the Bible says nothing of the sort); gay people fall under the strict scrutiny provisions of Constitutional protection, meaning that any restriction imposed only on gay people as opposed to everybody else must pass extra-strict Constitutional provisions requiring the state to account for this restriction with a compelling, rational reason that justifies it; and gay people cannot be deprived of their human rights without due process, something which mob rule masquerading as voting is most certainly not.
The Constitution has now been restored as the law of the land in California. This case, argued let it be noted by one of the most respected conservative lawyers in America, Ted Olsen, is now on a trajectory that will take it to the 9th court of appeals and thence to the Supreme Court. It looks as if, as in Lawrence vs Texas, that Justice Anthony Kennedy will be the one man on which will hang government by law or government by a mob in the street. If Kennedy is still the man who wrote that the purpose of the court is to protect liberty and not to rubber stamp somebody's arbitrary version of "morality," we may be on the verge of a sea change in the status of gay people in America. Cross your fingers and re-read Kennedy's majority opinion in Lawrence.
Read it here
Proposition 8, the infamous mob-rule attempt to alienate gay people from the fundamental human right of marriage, is now overturned. The judge spared no words in his ruling: Proposition 8 has no rational basis ("the Bible says" is not a rational, legal argument in these United States, especially when the Bible says nothing of the sort); gay people fall under the strict scrutiny provisions of Constitutional protection, meaning that any restriction imposed only on gay people as opposed to everybody else must pass extra-strict Constitutional provisions requiring the state to account for this restriction with a compelling, rational reason that justifies it; and gay people cannot be deprived of their human rights without due process, something which mob rule masquerading as voting is most certainly not.
The Constitution has now been restored as the law of the land in California. This case, argued let it be noted by one of the most respected conservative lawyers in America, Ted Olsen, is now on a trajectory that will take it to the 9th court of appeals and thence to the Supreme Court. It looks as if, as in Lawrence vs Texas, that Justice Anthony Kennedy will be the one man on which will hang government by law or government by a mob in the street. If Kennedy is still the man who wrote that the purpose of the court is to protect liberty and not to rubber stamp somebody's arbitrary version of "morality," we may be on the verge of a sea change in the status of gay people in America. Cross your fingers and re-read Kennedy's majority opinion in Lawrence.
Read it here
Friday, March 19, 2010
A heist in progress
Have I got a deal for you! My friend George has gone bankrupt, just plain dead broke. His business has been closed by the government; his stores are shuttered. It's all over for George. And now is a great time for you to invest your savings in George's business. What? You think I'm nuts?
Well, the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation), which is running desperately short of money because of the ever-growing number of bank failures, now wants public pension funds to invest their money in failed banks. Hello? Why would anyone, much less soon-to-be retirees, buy a failed bank? Isn't the adjective "failed" a pretty good indication of what you would be buying--namely, crap?
This is the first step in what is clearly going to be the eventual nationalization of pensions funds--public funds, private funds, 401Ks, IRAs, etc. The government is dead broke; apparently its recent Treasury bond sales have been mostly to the Fed as fewer and fewer chumps want to buy US government debt. So where will the government lay its hands on money to prop-up tottering banks? Your pension, that's where.
Read it here
Well, the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation), which is running desperately short of money because of the ever-growing number of bank failures, now wants public pension funds to invest their money in failed banks. Hello? Why would anyone, much less soon-to-be retirees, buy a failed bank? Isn't the adjective "failed" a pretty good indication of what you would be buying--namely, crap?
This is the first step in what is clearly going to be the eventual nationalization of pensions funds--public funds, private funds, 401Ks, IRAs, etc. The government is dead broke; apparently its recent Treasury bond sales have been mostly to the Fed as fewer and fewer chumps want to buy US government debt. So where will the government lay its hands on money to prop-up tottering banks? Your pension, that's where.
Read it here
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
FYI: $4,750,593,824 a day
Mr. Obama has been president for 421 days (when the article below was written). During that time the Federal deficit has increased by $2 trillion dollars. That is: $2,000,000,000,000. Or about $4,750,593,824 per day. That's four billion, seven hundred fifty million, five hundred ninety-three thousand, eight hundred and twenty-four dollars per day of new debt.
Words fail me.
Read the incredible story here
Words fail me.
Read the incredible story here
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